Recent Activities: Ascott Trust R, Kimly, Super Group

Draft: 3/28/2017

Source: readings and my trading activities

All these happened last week, I was too busy with my work to blog. Finally got some time to pen down my thoughts and recent activities after getting a day off.

 Ascott Trust Rights issue (CFIR)

It is rather difficult to find its trading code on SGX. Not even mentioned in its Offer document.

Here is trade summary of its Mar-20’s trade against its underline instrument, I captured during one night via an online trade platform which I seldom used.  I couldn’t do it with my POEMS account, not sure why.

CFIR

Last Done Price	0.159	Volume	5,068,500
Change	0.024	%Change	17.78%
High	0.162	Low	0.132
Others* : off-market transaction
Price	Trades	Volume	Sold to Buyer	Bought from Seller	*Other
0.132	1	3,400	3,400	0	0
0.133	32	751,300	625,300	126,000	0
0.134	86	709,400	481,700	219,800	7,900
0.135	73	581,600	388,900	157,500	35,200
0.136	49	411,000	249,100	106,100	55,800
0.137	35	231,900	20,200	145,900	65,800
0.138	16	111,600	36,000	58,800	16,800
0.139	13	74,500	5,100	57,400	12,000
0.14	9	70,200	5,000	65,200	0
0.141	1	4,300	4,300	0	0
0.142	32	80,900	28,100	52,800	0
0.143	8	7,900	1,100	6,800	0
0.144	6	1,400	0	1,400	0
0.145	5	60,200	0	60,200	0
0.147	6	60,000	0	60,000	0
0.148	11	43,900	29,100	12,300	2,500
0.149	2	4,600	1,400	0	3,200
0.15	21	113,900	75,800	38,100	0
0.151	6	51,400	0	7,000	44,400
0.152	8	97,600	40,300	57,300	0
0.153	13	89,900	60,900	25,700	3,300
0.154	12	190,700	83,000	107,700	0
0.155	4	59,800	1,400	0	58,400
0.156	19	160,300	125,400	34,900	0
0.157	12	273,200	73,200	200,000	0
0.158	55	357,600	260,500	81,900	15,200
0.159	38	253,400	186,000	64,100	3,300
0.16	22	105,000	56,000	22,400	26,600
0.161	22	42,600	27,000	15,600	0
0.162	5	65,000	0	65,000	0
TOTAL:	622	5,068,500	2,868,200	1,849,900	350,400
	Avg Vol/Trade	8,149
	Avg Trade($)	$1,167.70
	Avg Price($)	0.143

(Don’t understand what is off-market transaction)

A68U

Last Done Price	1.08	Volume	8,536,800
Change	0.025	%Change	2.37%
High	1.09	Low	1.06
Price	Trades	Volume	Sold to Buyer	Bought from Seller
1.06	317	765,100	765,100	0
1.065	545	3,798,400	1,138,800	2,659,600
1.07	189	974,600	3,500	971,100
1.075	106	624,400	362,400	262,000
1.08	592	1,694,400	842,500	851,900
1.085	155	679,800	106,000	573,800
1.09	1	100	0	100
TOTAL:	1,905	8,536,800	3,218,300	5,318,500

With 481milion new units rights issued, considering Sponsor(Ascott) and few key investors committed to subscribe to the new Units, they are unlikely to trade Rights on the bourse, so the % of eligible rights owner changing hands is higher. A good observation over the following few days is, specially when Ascott announced its financial results, Rights issue could be up/down more volatile in a single trading day due to its leverage. For 1 right @~0.14-~0.15, and offer price of 0.919, it is ~6time leverage, meaning every 1% movement of Ascott, could bring 6 times of % change to its rights price. I believe a lot of traders are gonna like this: 17.78% in a day.

Kimly(1D0)

It is sizzling hot for this coffee shop counter. Not unexpected.

Here is its first day debut performance on Mar 20th, 2017.

Last Done Price	0.44	Volume	108,499,100
Change	-	%Change	-
High	0.565	Low	0.425
Others* : off-market transaction
Price	Trades	Volume	Sold to Buyer	Bought from Seller	*Other
0.425	33	777,000	777,000	0	0
0.43	91	2,664,900	2,231,400	433,500	0
0.435	247	5,028,100	2,306,700	2,721,400	0
0.44	216	4,175,400	2,350,000	1,825,400	0
0.445	230	5,964,900	2,795,600	3,169,300	0
0.45	571	10,228,800	5,263,200	4,884,100	81,500
0.455	446	8,613,900	3,541,700	5,072,200	0
0.46	284	6,122,100	2,669,800	3,452,300	0
0.465	124	2,150,900	1,362,300	788,600	0
0.47	162	3,438,800	1,128,600	2,310,200	0
0.475	127	3,118,300	1,178,300	1,940,000	0
0.48	155	3,315,500	2,016,300	1,299,200	0
0.485	152	2,910,300	1,467,300	1,379,500	63,500
0.49	99	1,678,800	691,500	884,100	103,200
0.495	29	1,220,700	761,100	459,600	0
0.5	100	2,151,600	2,006,500	145,100	0
0.505	147	3,028,400	1,838,100	1,190,300	0
0.51	107	2,059,500	550,300	1,509,200	0
0.515	77	2,324,900	1,840,100	484,800	0
0.52	68	1,957,600	754,200	1,203,400	0
0.525	64	1,257,600	1,207,000	50,600	0
0.53	74	1,407,400	542,700	864,700	0
0.535	130	2,619,100	1,961,000	658,100	0
0.54	125	2,083,200	1,276,400	499,100	307,700
0.545	200	4,960,000	3,529,600	1,430,400	0
0.55	555	17,871,300	15,118,600	2,707,900	44,800
0.555	110	3,271,300	1,182,300	1,866,000	223,000
0.56	72	1,919,200	473,400	1,076,200	369,600
0.565	1	179,600	0	179,600	0
TOTAL:	4,796	108,499,100	62,821,000	44,484,800	1,193,300
	Avg Vol/Trade	22,623
	Avg Trade($)	$11,123.44
	Avg Price($)	0.492

In the end, I turned sideline to become an observer for the entire week, partly because I have no spare time during the day last week to check its price movement. So it is not my money when it hit a bottom price of $0.42~$0.43.

While I could claim that if I could have purchased Kimly at $0.42 and sold it $0.50, it is illusive from a back-view mirror point, unless I consider Kimly's value is more than that.

Super Group

I tendered my consent form for accepting Super Group’s voluntary acquisition proposal. The price offered is S$1.30 in cash by JDE(Jacobs Douwe Egberts BV) unconditionally, valued Super Group at S$1.45b. The delisting from SGX will take place if after JDE acquires more than 90% shares. Offer was planned btwn Mar 14th to Apr 11th, but extended to Apr 25th.(Is it because acquirer would like to make certain of collecting enough shares?)

Quote from its announcement:

“As of 5pm yesterday, shares of Super Group that are owned, controlled or agreed to be acquired by Sapphire Investments stood at 872,408,213, representing 78.29% of Super Groups shares.”

Super was traded at S$0.97/piece just before its trading halt on Oct 31st, 2016. I got to know this news when I was still in China, planning for my moving back to SG. 

The trading halt was lifted on Nov 3rd when the price of the counter shot up to 1.2x. After knowing that founding family and Mr. Sam Goi gave their irrevocable undertakings to accept the offer, and JDE paid more than $10m as a goodfaith deposit, I got in at 1.25~1.26.

Here was my thought:

If it took a year to complete the transaction, I’m going to get an annualized return of 3.2%, any date earlier will improve the RR. Downside is almost nil.

Fast forward, 5mth later:

Current calculation, assuming close at end of April: XIRR=~6.6%.

Nothing spectacular, but this is my money I could reliably estimate when I got in, very little dependency on the general market movement when looked back in Nov 2016.

An important lesson I learnt thru these number of years is: we don't play retrospective games in investment.