Tuesday, July 16, 2019

DEBT, DEBT, DEBT!

Date: 2019-07-17
Source: IMF blog

Article 1: https://blogs.imf.org/2018/04/18/bringing-down-high-debt/
Global debt hit a new record high of $164 trillion in 2016, the equivalent of 225 percent of global GDP. 

Article 2: https://blogs.imf.org/2019/01/02/new-data-on-global-debt/
Global debt has reached an all-time high of $184 trillion in nominal terms, the equivalent of 225 percent of GDP in 2017. 

Article 3: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/number-day-global-debt-grows-221006381.html
Global debt grew by $3 trillion in the first quarter of the year to reach $246.5 trillion total, according to a report by the Institute of International Finance cited by Axios. "brought it to nearly 320% of the world's GDP".

From these:
- assume 1.5% interest rate of the debt
- assume GDP's profit(is there such a thing of GDP profit?) is 5%
merely enough to pay back interest, when to claw back the principal amount? more QE, QE, QE!
(借新债还旧债, refunding/refinancing)

Sunday, July 7, 2019

A quick update on H1 2019

Date: 2019-07-08

I had spent a lot of time in/out of hospital, elderly home since end of Q1 due to family member's poor health condition.

Not a lot of updates, given very little time and energy to monitor market, read reports etc.

I sold Guocoland(F17) at price of $2.00 recently, and immediately saw the price running away from me and it got to as high as $2.07 on that day. What a poor timing for me, considering the entire holding period of nearly 2Yrs, the return is merely 1.5% about; worse than putting that into a fixed deposit account.

Also I licked my wound on TTJ(K1Q) in Q2, another disgraced investment.

Given my substantial holding in STI ETF(ES3), and a pretty good return of STI index in H1 2019, overall it helps spare my blushes.

Good surprises came too, due mainly to Capitaland and Ascendas' various corporation action/consolidation.

Looking fwd to 2nd half the year.

Monday, May 20, 2019

REITs and NPI

Date: May-20-2019
Source:
https://www.fool.sg/2019/05/18/eagle-hospitality-business-trust-ipo-8-things-investors-should-know/
https://www.dbs.com/livemore/getting-singapores-first-reit-on-the-market-we-felt-we-needed-to-do-this-for-singapore.html


Shareinvestor's annual REITs Symposium was held on 18 May, 2019. It is the fifth of such annual symposiums by shareinvestor, and the first time held at MBS. Being a member, I happily attended the whole day event with my complimentary ticket.

According to the co-organizer REITAS, who boasts 75%(per market cap angle) of SGX listed REITs as its members, the annualized return of REITs in Singapore has at least double that rate of STI index in the past couple of years(citation sources??).

Real estate investment trusts (REITs), usually offers investors a yield of 5-8 per cent, as one of the speakers, Kenny Loh put it:
- Distribution Yields
- P/NAV
- Gearing ratio (<45% SGX regulation, Debt/Total Asset)
are the three key factors to consider when invest into REITs.

Reits were introduced in Singapore in 2002, CapitaMall Turst. REITs business model is based on distribution of rental income from the underlining real estate(property concerned). REITs have at least 90% of the coming distributed to unit holders, under such circumstances, such investors will not be taxed on the distribution income thus obtained.

Logically, given there are fees charged by trust manger who manages REITs on behalf of trust investors, distribution amount should be less than the NPI(Net Property Income) . For instance:
- Eagle Hospitality Trust, based on Motley Fool's article,
 "3. Net property income (NPI) was US$47.4 million for 2018 but is projected to rise to US$51.1 million this year. For 2020, NPI is projected to hit US$81.3 million. US$174 million had been spent on capital expenditure since 2013, and the REIT has earmarked a further US$18.6 million for more asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs)."

 while after all cost and tax deduction, the income available for distribution is 37.229mUSD, or 4.27 cents per Stapled security, thus it is only an annualized 8.2% on 0.78(USD) IPO price.
* Annualized by extrapolating the forecast figures over a full financial year


Monday, January 14, 2019

Capitaland to acquire Ascendas

Date: 2019-1-14
Data source: Capitaland website

Today I have to write something about this acquisition, because I hold few counters of both sides that are involved in today's announcement from Capitaland.

I have a mixed feeling about it:
- should I feel better if Capitaland pays generously to Ascendas since I'll benefit more from my Ascendas REITs which are indirectly related and form the basis of valuation of the acquired entity - Ascendas-Singbridge (the sponsors of those REITs)?
- or should I feel better if Capitaland pays subpar to Ascendas then I'll benefit more from my Capitaland holdings and related Capital-REITs?

Few questions remain unanswered at this moment:
- is SGD $10.9b a right price to pay by Capitaland, of which $4.8b is debt to be inherited from Ascendas-Singbridge?
- in order to raise the remaining $6b, Capitaland is going to issue 862m Capitaland share @ 3.50 per piece, is this $3.50 correct price(knowing its current NAV $4.49)? (the rest of $3b, will be thru other financing options)
- Capitaland will have a much higher leverage @70+% after this activities, is this the appropriate level of gearing under current interest environment?

Frankly, I have no answers.

To read more of this PPT and wait for more info to unfold.

Wednesday, January 2, 2019

Summary of 2018, Happy New Year 2019!

Date: 2018-01-03


2018 is over, the result of this year's stock investment performance is poor, paper loss in all markets I invest in.


A summary in Chinese is here: https://xueqiu.com/7511996126/119146460

Few counters here dragged my SGP results, namely:
- SingPost
- SingTel
- Capitaland

Nothing much else to say. Hope to get some recovery in 2019.


Sunday, September 16, 2018

From Nifty Fifty to Favorite Five

Date: 2018-09-17
Source: Supermoney, Internet info

"
Those final two years of the bubble reflected a subtle shift from the Go-Go era to the “Favorite Fifty” era. But that metamorphosis didn’t help the other, more conservative, equity funds. Why? Because as the bubble mutated from generally smaller concept stocks to large, established companies—“the great companies” epitomized in the Rochester portfolio, sometimes called the “Favorite Fifty,” sometimes the “Vestal Virgins”—the stock prices of these companies, too, lost touch with the underlying economic reality, trading at price-earnings multiples that, as it was said, “discounted not only the future, but the hereafter. 
But as 1973 began, the game ended. 
...
And so, on September 24, 1974, out of all the hyperbole and madness of the Go-Go era and the
Favorite Fifty era, and the travail of the great crash that followed, came the creation of the Vanguard Group of Investment Companies.
  

"
-By
John C. Bogle, Jan 11, 2006
Forward to "Supermoney"(Adam Smith)


  • FAANG: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google
  • FAAAM: Facebook, Alphabet(Google), Amazon, Apple, Microsoft


FAANG: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faang-stocks.asp
Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOG) are the five technology giants trading publicly in the market today, as of 2017. Wall Street grouped these companies into one acronym to capture the collective impact that these companies have on the markets. As of Mar. 20, 2018, the market capitalization of these companies summed up to $472.38B + $760.36B + $888.66B + $136.92B + $757.54B = $3.015 trillion.

Many shall be restored that now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.
~Horace-Ars Poetica

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Nirvana (凤凰涅磐)

Date: Aug 1st, 2018

This is a followup blog on my July Updates.

In that post, I listed my XIRR since 1999(initial investment), and from 2015(resumed SG investment), the relative good result from 2015 is rather short termed, and is probably due mainly to a) I got in some sizeable position at a relatively depressed SG market in 2016, and b) an improved stock investment skill after many years of lessons learnt in CN/SG market.

I made many mistakes in SG stock investment, brought and sold close to 80 SG counters since D1. Here is a record of my money losing counters, most of which I believe were delisted. The only saving grace is that majority of those were brought and sold before 2005 when I was still a green horn, except QAF which was done in 2017 and I had since then admitted my ignorance and closed that position.

Realized losses in SG stock market
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My aim is to further improve my XIRR, to reach 8%~10% in SG. While it seems quite achievable in CN stock market by nominal value given a flux of money supply and higher inflation rate over in mainland, it looks a lot challenging in a more matured economy.


Jack Ma once said: "梦想总是要有的,万一实现了呢".