Monday, January 14, 2019

Capitaland to acquire Ascendas

Date: 2019-1-14
Data source: Capitaland website

Today I have to write something about this acquisition, because I hold few counters of both sides that are involved in today's announcement from Capitaland.

I have a mixed feeling about it:
- should I feel better if Capitaland pays generously to Ascendas since I'll benefit more from my Ascendas REITs which are indirectly related and form the basis of valuation of the acquired entity - Ascendas-Singbridge (the sponsors of those REITs)?
- or should I feel better if Capitaland pays subpar to Ascendas then I'll benefit more from my Capitaland holdings and related Capital-REITs?

Few questions remain unanswered at this moment:
- is SGD $10.9b a right price to pay by Capitaland, of which $4.8b is debt to be inherited from Ascendas-Singbridge?
- in order to raise the remaining $6b, Capitaland is going to issue 862m Capitaland share @ 3.50 per piece, is this $3.50 correct price(knowing its current NAV $4.49)? (the rest of $3b, will be thru other financing options)
- Capitaland will have a much higher leverage @70+% after this activities, is this the appropriate level of gearing under current interest environment?

Frankly, I have no answers.

To read more of this PPT and wait for more info to unfold.

Wednesday, January 2, 2019

Summary of 2018, Happy New Year 2019!

Date: 2018-01-03


2018 is over, the result of this year's stock investment performance is poor, paper loss in all markets I invest in.


A summary in Chinese is here: https://xueqiu.com/7511996126/119146460

Few counters here dragged my SGP results, namely:
- SingPost
- SingTel
- Capitaland

Nothing much else to say. Hope to get some recovery in 2019.


Sunday, September 16, 2018

From Nifty Fifty to Favorite Five

Date: 2018-09-17
Source: Supermoney, Internet info

"
Those final two years of the bubble reflected a subtle shift from the Go-Go era to the “Favorite Fifty” era. But that metamorphosis didn’t help the other, more conservative, equity funds. Why? Because as the bubble mutated from generally smaller concept stocks to large, established companies—“the great companies” epitomized in the Rochester portfolio, sometimes called the “Favorite Fifty,” sometimes the “Vestal Virgins”—the stock prices of these companies, too, lost touch with the underlying economic reality, trading at price-earnings multiples that, as it was said, “discounted not only the future, but the hereafter. 
But as 1973 began, the game ended. 
...
And so, on September 24, 1974, out of all the hyperbole and madness of the Go-Go era and the
Favorite Fifty era, and the travail of the great crash that followed, came the creation of the Vanguard Group of Investment Companies.
  

"
-By
John C. Bogle, Jan 11, 2006
Forward to "Supermoney"(Adam Smith)


  • FAANG: Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google
  • FAAAM: Facebook, Alphabet(Google), Amazon, Apple, Microsoft


FAANG: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faang-stocks.asp
Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet (GOOG) are the five technology giants trading publicly in the market today, as of 2017. Wall Street grouped these companies into one acronym to capture the collective impact that these companies have on the markets. As of Mar. 20, 2018, the market capitalization of these companies summed up to $472.38B + $760.36B + $888.66B + $136.92B + $757.54B = $3.015 trillion.

Many shall be restored that now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.
~Horace-Ars Poetica

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Nirvana (凤凰涅磐)

Date: Aug 1st, 2018

This is a followup blog on my July Updates.

In that post, I listed my XIRR since 1999(initial investment), and from 2015(resumed SG investment), the relative good result from 2015 is rather short termed, and is probably due mainly to a) I got in some sizeable position at a relatively depressed SG market in 2016, and b) an improved stock investment skill after many years of lessons learnt in CN/SG market.

I made many mistakes in SG stock investment, brought and sold close to 80 SG counters since D1. Here is a record of my money losing counters, most of which I believe were delisted. The only saving grace is that majority of those were brought and sold before 2005 when I was still a green horn, except QAF which was done in 2017 and I had since then admitted my ignorance and closed that position.

Realized losses in SG stock market
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My aim is to further improve my XIRR, to reach 8%~10% in SG. While it seems quite achievable in CN stock market by nominal value given a flux of money supply and higher inflation rate over in mainland, it looks a lot challenging in a more matured economy.


Jack Ma once said: "梦想总是要有的,万一实现了呢".

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

July Updates

  1. On Jul 5th, 2018 evening, Government announced new property cooling measures (the 9th of it?) by raising ABSD(5% extra) and tighten loan limit(LTV) to cool the SG property market.
  2. My stock portfolio's value dropped more than that 5% (ABSD) adjustment on the  next day market opening, contributed by sharp decrease of price quoted on counters, such as: Capitaland, Guocoland and Singtel, as well as STI ETF. Citydev once dropped by almost 20% on Jul 6th.
  3. Koufu IPO(0.63 per piece), applied and got allocated some lots, sold too earlier even though I could have hold it a bit longer(not because its price run-up these few days).
  4. Calculated my SG stock investment XIRR after recent GIC/Temasek result announcement.
  • SGP GDP 1999, 85~86b USD
  • SGP GDP 2017, 324b USD 
  • CAGR: 7.23%

  • STI 1999-07, 2181 (initial investment)
  • STI 2018-07-31, 3319
  • Annualized: 2.22%
  • My XIRR: 5.3%

  • STI 2015-05, 3392 (resume investment)
  • XIRR:  11.6%
Just some quick updates to keep own record.

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Sinostar Pec (C9Q.SI)

Date: 2018-06-20

I'm a Sinostar Pec shareholder since I came back to Singapore, and have been holding it for 2 years.

I picked this counter based on Ben Graham's net net value investing approach(Fundamentalism: 原教旨主义的 ) and started my initial position when it was $0.09.

It gives me some fond memory and good return after I divested part of my holdings to lower my cost.


I recently notice the counter has turned a bit active with a couple of SGX announcements, showing its CEO Mr. Li Xiang Ping's buying the shares from mid of Jun, average $0.17~0.19~0.20.

But, why didn't he do that earlier when the price was much more depressed?

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I'm happy to see the price inching up, but I have no plan to load or reduce my current position.

Caveat: this blog is not a suggestion to buy or sell Sinostar Pec.

Sunday, June 17, 2018

Astrea IV (RMRB.SI)

Date: 2018-06-18

Sold my Astrea IV allocation today.

Par: $100
Coupon: 4.35%
Payment interval: semi-annually
Maturity: 5y (soft, callable)/10y (hard, 0.5% step up)
Subscription fee: $2

Calc formula:
            PV = C/(1 + r) 1 + C/(1 + r) 2 + . . . + C/(1 + r) Y + B/(1 + r) Y

  • PV is the price of a bond,
  • C is the periodic coupon payment,
  • r is the yield to maturity (YTM) of a bond,
  • B is the par value or face value of a bond,
  • Y is the number of years to maturity

A quick Excel formula is Yield function
= Yield (Today(), Date(2023,6,14), 4.35%, Price, 100, 2)

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鸡肋(in Chinese Pin ying: Ji1 Lei4): 食之无味, 弃之可惜.

  • tasteless when eaten but a pity to throw away
  • can't hurt you, but can't help you

Sold it at YTM=3.80%.

Pocket some petty cash, that's it. The end.