Sunday, June 17, 2018

Astrea IV

Date: 2018-06-18

Sold my Astrea IV allocation today.

Par: $100
Coupon: 4.35%
Payment interval: semi-annually
Maturity: 5y (soft, callable)/10y (hard, 0.5% step up)
Subscription fee: $2

Calc formula:
            PV = C/(1 + r) 1 + C/(1 + r) 2 + . . . + C/(1 + r) Y + B/(1 + r) Y

  • PV is the price of a bond,
  • C is the periodic coupon payment,
  • r is the yield to maturity (YTM) of a bond,
  • B is the par value or face value of a bond,
  • Y is the number of years to maturity

A quick Excel formula is Yield function
= Yield (Today(), Date(2023,6,14), 4.35%, Price, 100, 2)

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鸡肋(in Chinese Pin ying: Ji1 Lei4): 食之无味, 弃之可惜.

  • tasteless when eaten but a pity to throw away
  • can't hurt you, but can't help you

Sold it at YTM=3.80%.

Pocket some petty cash, that's it. The end.

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Monday, April 9, 2018

ComfortDelGro (C52.SI)

Data source: from various internet sites, such as Yahoo!, shareinvestors.


ComfortDelGro is a local favorite. Writing anything on it will likely attract some strong objections from either side of the camp.

A few of local bloggers which I followed, in this year, have loaded with this counter upon its recent price weakness. It got me interested too, but to predict future price movement is always a difficult thing, even if not unachievable task. (用中国话来说,是一个容易“被打脸”的事情)



I didn't read all its annual reports before putting down the following analysis, so the assessment is purely mathematical, without a deep business understanding of its competitive environment, future aspect, market price improvement initiatives, or mgmt. effort on unlocking values for shareholders.

I just applied some simple(similar) rules taught by the 'master', from what I recently read.

Financial Info of ComfortDelGro for last decade
ComfortDelGro business is fairly consistent,easy to analyze.

Its revenue is growing at an annualized pace of 2~3%, by observing the history record, its revenue seems increased every 3 years, then kept there for a while, then got another jump, probably related to taxi fare adjustment allowed by gov every few years.

Given the control of government on taxi tariff level, balancing of its profitability vs. general public's affordability, I think this pattern will continue. With the current road traffic loading, as well as general public's ridership behavior will not change drastically, the revenue projection of this counter can be estimated with certain level of confidence.

Its SG&A cost is quite consistently at 4% in recent years, I don't think it will swing too much either in the near future.

Over 10-y average, NI % is 7.1%, ROE 12~13%;  FCF/NP is ~90%, meaning the quality of earning is pretty real. Interest coverage is 20 times, it is a safe company in term of financial health.

Over a 10-y horizon, it earned 2.6B net profit, 2.3B FCF in aggregation: or 260m$ NP, 230m FCF annually (on average).

I ask myself:
  • Here is a business which is allowed to adjust its price level at 2~3% annually(on average), if I was a potential buyer of such business with 250k profit per annum , maybe I'm willing to pay 2m~2.5m? what about 4.5m asking price, is that too high or too low? 
  • Ok, maybe increase a bit, a business offer 300k profit per annum, is 3.6m(to acquire it w/o even counting all the debts yet) a reasonable price tag?


Well, may be yes, may be not:
  1. Because its dividend yield is 5%(2018/04/09, based on Yahoo! Finance info), I'm satisfied w/ this, since it is much better than SGD time deposit
  2. Because it offers ROE 12% @ PB 1.72 at current $2.09/piece, much better than a lot of other SG counters, it is not priced unreasonably inflated
  3. Because it has very few competitors? Its business volume is more or less guaranteed for foreseeable future
Your judgement?

Assessment
To me, even it dropped from $2.7+ in Apr 2017, to $2 now, it doesn't look like a bargain as it appeared at the first sight.
Caveats, with its gov-link background, similar to SPH etc, it might have a lot of hidden gems(assets), which cannot be simply analyzed by just putting up such a summary table, a serious investor has to thoroughly review its whole potential by reading each year's report and analyst reports.

For me, as a full time employee in other business lines, this is enough time spent on this counter, at least to give a pass, even if those gems can be found later, I'll, at least for now, don't feel being too tempted.

Catalysts:
- M&A(w/ internet ride hailing company)?
- AI driver?

2018.04.09
P.S. It is very time consuming to keep on blogging. I really admire the persistence of some of the well-know SG bloggers.



Refresh to continue (the journey)

Time flies fast.

It is already 3mth passed from my early Jan's blog post this year.

---------------------------------------------------
What and how did I do so far this year?

I reopened my old books, finished one more round of reading again. One of them I purchased in Y2003. Time flied fast.


  • I regretted that I should have followed it more closely long long time ago.
  • I felt that I'm now better equipped, and a lot of previously ambiguous concepts are now all linked properly with each other, even Warren Buffett's letters to partisanship from 1957 can be referenced into this book, concepts such as: generals, workouts, controls,... 


This is a relatively thin book, just a quick flip-thru to refresh the basic financial concepts in a company's annual report, amazingly a lot of those are still very relevant even today.


  • I shall do a few more experiments on SG counters myself as followup.







Work wise, this is THE month of the year, it is the mth of payout of my AWS (aws here is not Amazon Web Service, but my bonus of last year).


Monday, January 8, 2018

SG Bloggers

2018-1-8

I rather randomly followed a couple of SG bloggers after coming back, selection is mainly based on my personal preference and quality of their articles, most of them post articles in the area of stock investment, financial planning and financial freedom, these areas are my interests.

- SG Wealth Builder, one of my liked bloggers recently put up a subscription based banner, I cannot any longer read his article w/o signup as a member. What a pity.

- ASSI, another locally known blogger has gone into semi-retirement mode since 2nd half of Y2017, he has reduced frequency of updates.

Time to make efforts to do my own home study more. Such time will anyway come by, sooner or later.

On personal improvement side, based on someone's recommendation, recently I finished reading "The art of thinking clearly".  I do not really appreciate every single fallacy summarized by Rolf Dobelli(the author). Even though the book serves a good pocketguide for quick reference, I still prefer master piece from Darrell Huff: How to lie with Statistics, or even Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness".

But one thing, I learnt from Rolf's book and thus would like to blog it down is: alternative path, when our investment return is good, is that because of our skill or our luck? It is more of a skill if thru alternative paths, I achieved the similar status/result/outcome.

That serves a sober reminder if I made some improvement on my stock investment.

Monday, January 1, 2018

Reflections on 2017 and Target for 2018

2017 is over. I have made some progresses and some mistakes.

In term of share investment, here is my result table.


2017
Return in Index
In local currency
Avg Position
In RMB
HSI
35.99%
19.12%
60%
10.73%
NASDAQ
29.11%
6.46%
35%
-0.24%
DJIA
25.68%
SPX500
20.04%
STI
17.99%
9.12%
30%
9.64%
000001.SH
6.56%
19.01%
50%
19.01%
399001.SZ
8.48%
399006.SZ
-10.67%
CSI300
21.78%
Total aggregated return
12.55% (in constant currency)
11.40%


I didn't do good enough in either STI or Hongkong or US market, with average position usually below 50%, most of the time around 30%. This was probably, in retrospect, a bad decision, as being too concern of the markets.

In 2017, I got the following IPOs:
- Dasin Retail TR, 0.80, didn't earn much money, sold in the 1st week of listing
- Netlink NBN TR, 0.81, still holding on to it
- RE&S, 0.22, made some nice profit and unloaded in the 1st week of listing
This is the first year I applied IPO in SG market, as it is usually not open to Singapore investors when they are overseas resided; I'm still getting used to the IPO scene locally.

Investment into STI ETF on installment basis turned out to be decent result, while my selection of SingPost and TTJ didn't work too well: SingPost is a rush-in after reading Alibaba's investment, even though my entry price is lower than theirs, it is still a bit too high after which I started reading its annual report and its fraud investment case in the US eCommerce space. TTJ, still monitoring it further.

Good performance is actually from Tat Seng Pkg and Sinostar Pec, I got in both counters at relatively low price.

Turnaround story is Keppel and DBS.

My SG investment is 27+% return on the counters I'm holding in 2017, but since I allocate my current asset into 3 equal portions: cash, stock, and living expense reserve. Overall return on this asset class is then 9.12%.

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A new year resolution of mine in 2018 is to work harder, to stay healthy.

2018-01-01

Thursday, October 5, 2017

STI ETF and AIA FUND

Updated: 2017.10.06
Data source: SPDR ETF annual report 2017, AIA fund report semi-annual report 2017


I got the pdf files from both web sites, both reports recorded respective funds performance ended Jun 2017. Because AIA's file is password protected, cannot copy and paste the figures into EXCEL file for comparison, so we have to live with the image captures.



AIA Fund performances


Spider STI ETF performance

STI ETF's annualized return is boosted by dividends over the years, approx. 3% improvement.

I suppose that AIA's fund return is before cost, meaning after mgmt cost deduction---assuming a 20:80% split, the unit trust holders of these funds are generally poorer than directly invest into SPDR STI ETF.

Of course, AIA funds are usually provided together with insurance products with certain level of insurance protection.