Monday, March 27, 2017

Recent Activities: Ascott Trust R, Kimly, Super Group

Draft: 3/28/2017
Source: readings and my trading activities

All these happened last week, I was too busy with my work to blog. Finally got some time to pen down my thoughts and recent activities after getting a day off.


 Ascott Trust Rights issue (CFIR)

It is rather difficult to find its trading code on SGX. Not even mentioned in its Offer document.

Here is trade summary of its Mar-20’s trade against its underline instrument, I captured during one night via an online trade platform which I seldom used.  I couldn’t do it with my POEMS account, not sure why.
CFIR
Last Done Price
0.159
Volume
5,068,500


Change
0.024
%Change
17.78%


High
0.162
Low
0.132


Others* : off-market transaction
Price
Trades
Volume
Sold to Buyer
Bought from Seller
*Other
0.132
1
3,400
3,400
0
0
0.133
32
751,300
625,300
126,000
0
0.134
86
709,400
481,700
219,800
7,900
0.135
73
581,600
388,900
157,500
35,200
0.136
49
411,000
249,100
106,100
55,800
0.137
35
231,900
20,200
145,900
65,800
0.138
16
111,600
36,000
58,800
16,800
0.139
13
74,500
5,100
57,400
12,000
0.14
9
70,200
5,000
65,200
0
0.141
1
4,300
4,300
0
0
0.142
32
80,900
28,100
52,800
0
0.143
8
7,900
1,100
6,800
0
0.144
6
1,400
0
1,400
0
0.145
5
60,200
0
60,200
0
0.147
6
60,000
0
60,000
0
0.148
11
43,900
29,100
12,300
2,500
0.149
2
4,600
1,400
0
3,200
0.15
21
113,900
75,800
38,100
0
0.151
6
51,400
0
7,000
44,400
0.152
8
97,600
40,300
57,300
0
0.153
13
89,900
60,900
25,700
3,300
0.154
12
190,700
83,000
107,700
0
0.155
4
59,800
1,400
0
58,400
0.156
19
160,300
125,400
34,900
0
0.157
12
273,200
73,200
200,000
0
0.158
55
357,600
260,500
81,900
15,200
0.159
38
253,400
186,000
64,100
3,300
0.16
22
105,000
56,000
22,400
26,600
0.161
22
42,600
27,000
15,600
0
0.162
5
65,000
0
65,000
0
TOTAL:
622
5,068,500
2,868,200
1,849,900
350,400







Avg Vol/Trade
 8,149




Avg Trade($)
$1,167.70




Avg Price($)
 0.143



(Don’t understand what is off-market transaction)

A68U
Last Done Price
1.08
Volume
8,536,800

Change
0.025
%Change
2.37%

High
1.09
Low
1.06

Price
Trades
Volume
Sold to Buyer
Bought from Seller
1.06
317
765,100
765,100
0
1.065
545
3,798,400
1,138,800
2,659,600
1.07
189
974,600
3,500
971,100
1.075
106
624,400
362,400
262,000
1.08
592
1,694,400
842,500
851,900
1.085
155
679,800
106,000
573,800
1.09
1
100
0
100
TOTAL:
1,905
8,536,800
3,218,300
5,318,500

With 481milion new units rights issued, considering Sponsor(Ascott) and few key investors committed to subscribe to the new Units, they are unlikely to trade Rights on the bourse, so the % of eligible rights owner changing hands is higher. A good observation over the following few days is, specially when Ascott announced its financial results, Rights issue could be up/down more volatile in a single trading day due to its leverage. For 1 right @~0.14-~0.15, and offer price of 0.919, it is ~6time leverage, meaning every 1% movement of Ascott, could bring 6 times of % change to its rights price. I believe a lot of traders are gonna like this: 17.78% in a day.


Kimly(1D0)
It is sizzling hot for this coffee shop counter. Not unexpected.
Here is its first day debut performance on Mar 20th, 2017.
Last Done Price
0.44
Volume
108,499,100


Change
-
%Change
-


High
0.565
Low
0.425


Others* : off-market transaction
Price
Trades
Volume
Sold to Buyer
Bought from Seller
*Other
0.425
33
777,000
777,000
0
0
0.43
91
2,664,900
2,231,400
433,500
0
0.435
247
5,028,100
2,306,700
2,721,400
0
0.44
216
4,175,400
2,350,000
1,825,400
0
0.445
230
5,964,900
2,795,600
3,169,300
0
0.45
571
10,228,800
5,263,200
4,884,100
81,500
0.455
446
8,613,900
3,541,700
5,072,200
0
0.46
284
6,122,100
2,669,800
3,452,300
0
0.465
124
2,150,900
1,362,300
788,600
0
0.47
162
3,438,800
1,128,600
2,310,200
0
0.475
127
3,118,300
1,178,300
1,940,000
0
0.48
155
3,315,500
2,016,300
1,299,200
0
0.485
152
2,910,300
1,467,300
1,379,500
63,500
0.49
99
1,678,800
691,500
884,100
103,200
0.495
29
1,220,700
761,100
459,600
0
0.5
100
2,151,600
2,006,500
145,100
0
0.505
147
3,028,400
1,838,100
1,190,300
0
0.51
107
2,059,500
550,300
1,509,200
0
0.515
77
2,324,900
1,840,100
484,800
0
0.52
68
1,957,600
754,200
1,203,400
0
0.525
64
1,257,600
1,207,000
50,600
0
0.53
74
1,407,400
542,700
864,700
0
0.535
130
2,619,100
1,961,000
658,100
0
0.54
125
2,083,200
1,276,400
499,100
307,700
0.545
200
4,960,000
3,529,600
1,430,400
0
0.55
555
17,871,300
15,118,600
2,707,900
44,800
0.555
110
3,271,300
1,182,300
1,866,000
223,000
0.56
72
1,919,200
473,400
1,076,200
369,600
0.565
1
179,600
0
179,600
0
TOTAL:
4,796
108,499,100
62,821,000
44,484,800
1,193,300







Avg Vol/Trade
 22,623




Avg Trade($)
$11,123.44




Avg Price($)
 0.492



In the end, I turned sideline to become an observer for the entire week, partly because I have no spare time during the day last week to check its price movement. So it is not my money when it hit a bottom price of $0.42~$0.43.

While I could claim that if I could have purchased Kimly at $0.42 and sold it $0.50, it is illusive from a back-view mirror point, unless I consider Kimly's value is more than that.


Super Group
I tendered my consent form for accepting Super Group’s voluntary acquisition proposal. The price offered is S$1.30 in cash by JDE(Jacobs Douwe Egberts BV) unconditionally, valued Super Group at S$1.45b. The delisting from SGX will take place if after JDE acquires more than 90% shares. Offer was planned btwn Mar 14th to Apr 11th, but extended to Apr 25th.(Is it because acquirer would like to make certain of collecting enough shares?)

Quote from its announcement:
As of 5pm yesterday, shares of Super Group that are owned, controlled or agreed to be acquired by Sapphire Investments stood at 872,408,213, representing 78.29% of Super Groups shares.

Super was traded at S$0.97/piece just before its trading halt on Oct 31st, 2016. I got to know this news when I was still in China, planning for my moving back to SG. 
The trading halt was lifted on Nov 3rd when the price of the counter shot up to 1.2x. After knowing that founding family and Mr. Sam Goi gave their irrevocable undertakings to accept the offer, and JDE paid more than $10m as a goodfaith deposit, I got in at 1.25~1.26.

Here was my thought:
If it took a year to complete the transaction, I’m going to get an annualized return of 3.2%, any date earlier will improve the RR. Downside is almost nil.
Fast forward, 5mth later:
Current calculation, assuming close at end of April: XIRR=~6.6%.

Nothing spectacular, but this is my money I could reliably estimate when I got in, very little dependency on the general market movement when looked back in Nov 2016.

An important lesson I learnt thru these number of years is: we don't play retrospective games in investment.